How to Make Good Decisions: Learning from Annie Duke’s “Thinking in Bets”
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22 April, 2025
Introduction
In our daily lives - from choosing what to eat to making major career moves - decision-making plays a fundamental role in our happiness and success. Renowned author and former professional poker player Annie Duke, in her book Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts, teaches us that our decisions are best seen as bets on an uncertain future rather than certainties. In Chapter 6, titled “Adventures in Mental Time Travel,” Duke introduces a powerful idea: to make good decisions, you must consider your past (old self), your present self, and your future self. By adopting what is often called the “10-10-10” rule - think about how you’ll feel in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years - you can navigate life’s uncertainty with greater clarity.
Meeting Your Old, Present, and Future Self
The concept of “mental time travel” encourages us to step outside our immediate emotions and biases. Duke suggests that instead of judging a decision solely by its immediate outcome, we should take a broader perspective:
Old Self: Reflect on your past experiences and the lessons you have learned. What did those experiences teach you about the value of long-term thinking and the consequences of short-term impulses?
Present Self: Recognize your current mindset and the emotions that cloud your judgment. By admitting “I’m not sure,” you can avoid the pitfalls of overconfidence and immediate gratification.
Future Self: Envision your life in the long run. Ask yourself: How will this decision affect my life in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years? This 10-10-10 analysis helps break the decision into manageable time slices, ensuring that fleeting emotions do not dictate long-term outcomes.
The Flat Tire Example
One particularly vivid example from Chapter 6 is the “flat tire” scenario. Imagine you’re on the road and suddenly get a flat tire. Your initial reaction might be stress and frustration. However, if you step back and ask yourself how you will feel about this inconvenience shortly versus in the distant future, you might choose a calmer, more deliberative response. The flat tire is not just a minor hassle - it can become an opportunity to reassess your priorities and practice patience. This simple yet effective analogy reminds us that every decision, big or small, has layers that only become clear when viewed through different time horizons.
Why Decision-Making Is Like Betting
Duke uses the language of betting to frame our choices; every decision, like a poker hand, is made under conditions of uncertainty. Instead of fixating on winning or losing a single hand, good decision-making requires focusing on the overall process and learning from each outcome. By acknowledging that no bet is ever 100% certain, you allow yourself the space to learn, adapt, and improve over time.
Applying the 10-10-10 Rule to Everyday Life
Here are some actionable steps you can take:
Pause: Before making a snap decision, take a few moments to consider how the decision will affect you in different time frames.
Journal: Write down your thoughts and predictions for how you’ll feel in the short, medium, and long terms. This reflection can help validate your decisions later.
Evaluate: Look back on past decisions where you either ignored or embraced the 10-10-10 mindset. What can you learn from those outcomes?
Conclusion
Good decision-making is not about guaranteeing a perfect outcome, but about improving your process over time. By learning to “bet” on decisions rather than being driven solely by immediate results, you can align your actions with what truly matters across time. As Annie Duke reminds us, recognizing uncertainty and planning for the future is the key to making smarter choices - whether it’s handling a flat tire on the road or making major life decisions.
Ready to upgrade your decision-making skills? Embrace uncertainty, plan for the future, and learn from every outcome. Your future self will thank you.
Written by: Liubov Kirilova
In our daily lives - from choosing what to eat to making major career moves - decision-making plays a fundamental role in our happiness and success. Renowned author and former professional poker player Annie Duke, in her book Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts, teaches us that our decisions are best seen as bets on an uncertain future rather than certainties. In Chapter 6, titled “Adventures in Mental Time Travel,” Duke introduces a powerful idea: to make good decisions, you must consider your past (old self), your present self, and your future self. By adopting what is often called the “10-10-10” rule - think about how you’ll feel in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years - you can navigate life’s uncertainty with greater clarity.
Meeting Your Old, Present, and Future Self
The concept of “mental time travel” encourages us to step outside our immediate emotions and biases. Duke suggests that instead of judging a decision solely by its immediate outcome, we should take a broader perspective:
Old Self: Reflect on your past experiences and the lessons you have learned. What did those experiences teach you about the value of long-term thinking and the consequences of short-term impulses?
Present Self: Recognize your current mindset and the emotions that cloud your judgment. By admitting “I’m not sure,” you can avoid the pitfalls of overconfidence and immediate gratification.
Future Self: Envision your life in the long run. Ask yourself: How will this decision affect my life in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years? This 10-10-10 analysis helps break the decision into manageable time slices, ensuring that fleeting emotions do not dictate long-term outcomes.
The Flat Tire Example
One particularly vivid example from Chapter 6 is the “flat tire” scenario. Imagine you’re on the road and suddenly get a flat tire. Your initial reaction might be stress and frustration. However, if you step back and ask yourself how you will feel about this inconvenience shortly versus in the distant future, you might choose a calmer, more deliberative response. The flat tire is not just a minor hassle - it can become an opportunity to reassess your priorities and practice patience. This simple yet effective analogy reminds us that every decision, big or small, has layers that only become clear when viewed through different time horizons.
Why Decision-Making Is Like Betting
Duke uses the language of betting to frame our choices; every decision, like a poker hand, is made under conditions of uncertainty. Instead of fixating on winning or losing a single hand, good decision-making requires focusing on the overall process and learning from each outcome. By acknowledging that no bet is ever 100% certain, you allow yourself the space to learn, adapt, and improve over time.
Applying the 10-10-10 Rule to Everyday Life
Here are some actionable steps you can take:
Pause: Before making a snap decision, take a few moments to consider how the decision will affect you in different time frames.
Journal: Write down your thoughts and predictions for how you’ll feel in the short, medium, and long terms. This reflection can help validate your decisions later.
Evaluate: Look back on past decisions where you either ignored or embraced the 10-10-10 mindset. What can you learn from those outcomes?
Conclusion
Good decision-making is not about guaranteeing a perfect outcome, but about improving your process over time. By learning to “bet” on decisions rather than being driven solely by immediate results, you can align your actions with what truly matters across time. As Annie Duke reminds us, recognizing uncertainty and planning for the future is the key to making smarter choices - whether it’s handling a flat tire on the road or making major life decisions.
Ready to upgrade your decision-making skills? Embrace uncertainty, plan for the future, and learn from every outcome. Your future self will thank you.
Written by: Liubov Kirilova
